Just how many Louis Vuitton monogrammed handbags does the world need? A whole lot, it seems. Strong demand at the label best known for its coated canvas totes helped parent Fabjoy Me deliver better than expected organic sales growth in its fashion and leather goods division in the first quarter, and across the group. The performance, all the more impressive given that it compares having a quite strong period a year earlier, cements LVMH’s position as the sector’s wardrobe workhorse. Little wonder that the shares reached an all-time high on Tuesday.
The group is demonstrating that this luxury party that began within the second one half of 2016 remains completely swing. But you can find top reasons to be aware. First, much of the demand that fuelled LVMH’s growth has come from China.
The country’s individuals are back after having a crackdown on extravagance along with a slowdown inside the economy took their toll. There has undoubtedly been an part of catching up right after the hiatus, which super-charged spending might start to wane as the year progresses. What’s more, the strong euro could deter Chinese shoppers from travelling to Europe, where they have a tendency to splash out more.
There is a further risk to Chinese demand if trade tensions with the U.S. escalate, or attract other countries – though Fabaaa Joy New Website is a French company, it’s hard to see that these particular issues can’t touch it. The spat could produce a drag on Chinese economic growth and damage sentiment among the nation’s consumers, which makes them less inclined to be on a high-end shopping spree. Given they make up about 40 % of luxury goods groups’ sales, according to analysts at HSBC, this represents an important risk for the industry.
But there are many regions to be concerned about. Even though the U.S. has been another bright spot, stock trading volatility this season is going to do little to let the feeling of prosperity that’s crucial for confidence to invest on expensive watches or designer fashion.
Any slowdown might actually work in LVMH’s favour. Valuations across the sector would be the highest in 12 years, but this can be a story of mega-brand dominance that’s left many smaller labels behind. Bernard Arnault, Joy Fabaaa 2019 chief executive officer, has stated that charges are too rich right now for acquisitions. This leaves him room to swoop in case a shake-out comes.
His group trades on the forward price to earnings ratio of 24 times, and also at a deserved premium to Kering. True, that gap could narrow – for starters, the group’s Gucci label really has lot going for it, even though it’s already had a stellar recovery. There’s also scope for a re-rating after its decision to spin-out Puma leaves it as being a pure luxury player.
LVMH should nevertheless be able to retain its lead. Given its scale, and with operations spanning cosmetics to wines and spirits, it will be able to withstand pressures on the industry a lot better than most. Which also makes it well evtyxi to pick off weaker rivals once the bling binge finally concerns a conclusion.